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Spatio-temporal patterns of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan: a Bayesian analysisPneumonia is one of the top 10 diseases by morbidity in Bhutan. This study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends and risk factors of childhood pneumonia in Bhutan.
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Methods for modelling excess mortality across England during the COVID-19 pandemicExcess mortality is an important measure of the scale of the coronavirus-2019 pandemic. It includes both deaths caused directly by the pandemic, and deaths caused by the unintended consequences of containment such as delays to accessing care or postponements of healthcare provision in the population. In 2020 and 2021, in England, multiple groups have produced measures of excess mortality during the pandemic.
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Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysisSubstantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.
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Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengueUnderstanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown.
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Malaria components of the Global Burden of Disease studyAdam Dan Francesca Susan Saddler Weiss Sanna Rumisha PhD PhD Dr PhD (Biostatistics) Research Officer Honorary Research Fellow Research Officer
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Malaria Atlas Project (MAP)The Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) aims to disseminate free, accurate and up-to-date geographical information on malaria and associated topics. Our mission is to generate new and innovative methods to map malaria, to produce a comprehensive range of maps and estimates that will support effective planning of malaria
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A malaria seasonality dataset for sub-Saharan AfricaMalaria imposes a significant global health burden and remains a major cause of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. In many countries, malaria transmission varies seasonally. The use of seasonally-deployed interventions is expanding, and the effectiveness of these control measures hinges on quantitative and geographically-specific characterisations of malaria seasonality.
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A global mathematical model of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malariaClimatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control.
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Challenges in the case-based surveillance of infectious diseasesTo effectively inform infectious disease control strategies, accurate knowledge of the pathogen's transmission dynamics is required. Since the timings of infections are rarely known, estimates of the infection incidence, which is crucial for understanding the transmission dynamics, often rely on measurements of other quantities amenable to surveillance.
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Spatio-temporal spread of artemisinin resistance in Southeast AsiaCurrent malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially.