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What Heterogeneities in Individual-level Mobility Are Lost During Aggregation? Leveraging GPS Logger Data to Understand Fine-scale and Aggregated Patterns of Mobility

Human movement drives spatial transmission patterns of infectious diseases. Population-level mobility patterns are often quantified using aggregated data sets, such as census migration surveys or mobile phone data. These data are often unable to quantify individual-level travel patterns and lack the information needed to discern how mobility varies by demographic groups. Individual-level datasets can capture additional, more precise, aspects of mobility that may impact disease risk or transmission patterns and determine how mobility differs across cohorts; however, these data are rare, particularly in locations such as sub-Saharan Africa.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico

The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus, Dengue virus, and Zika virus clusters in Mexico.

The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa.

Mapping the distribution of Nipah virus infections: a geospatial modelling analysis

Nipah virus is a zoonotic paramyxovirus responsible for disease outbreaks with high fatality rates in south and southeast Asia. However, knowledge of the potential geographical extent and risk patterns of the virus is poor. We aimed to establish an integrated spatiotemporal and phylogenetic database of Nipah virus infections in humans and animals across south and southeast Asia. 

A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV 2 during periods of high, low, and zero case incidence

Against a backdrop ofwidespread global transmission, a number of countries have successfully brought large outbreaks of COVID-19 under control and maintained near-elimination status. A key element of epidemic response is the tracking of disease transmissibility in near real-time. During major out-breaks, the effective reproduction number can be estimated froma time-series of case, hospitalisation or death counts. In low or zero incidence settings, knowing the potential for the virus to spread is a response priority.

Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa

Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5-year old children after hospitalised SMA.

Global estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of malaria from 2007 to 2020: a demographic study

The most recent global estimates of the number of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria infection are from 2007. To inform global malaria prevention and control efforts, we aimed to estimate the global distribution of pregnancies at risk of malaria infection from 2007 to 2020.

The effect of undernutrition on sputum culture conversion and treatment outcomes among people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

We aimed to evaluate the effect of undernutrition on sputum culture conversion and treatment outcomes among people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

An archetypes approach to malaria intervention impact mapping: a new framework and example application

As both mechanistic and geospatial malaria modeling methods become more integrated into malaria policy decisions, there is increasing demand for strategies that combine these two methods. This paper introduces a novel archetypes-based methodology for generating high-resolution intervention impact maps based on mechanistic model simulations. An example configuration of the framework is described and explored.

A global mathematical model of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control.