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Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast AsiaPlasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic parasite that causes malaria in humans. The pathogen has a natural host reservoir in certain macaque species and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes of the Anopheles Leucosphyrus Group. The risk of human P. knowlesi infection varies across Southeast Asia and is dependent upon environmental factors.
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Mapping the incidence rate of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan AfricaWith more than 1.2 million illnesses and 29,000 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem. Effective control of the disease would benefit from an understanding of the subnational geospatial distribution of the disease incidence.
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Rhinoviruses A and C elicit long-lasting antibody responses with limited cross-neutralizationRhinoviruses (RVs) can cause severe wheezing illnesses in young children and patients with asthma. Vaccine development has been hampered by the multitude of RV types with little information about cross-neutralization. We previously showed that neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses to RV-C are detected twofold to threefold more often than those to RV-A throughout childhood. Based on those findings, we hypothesized that RV-C infections are more likely to induce either cross-neutralizing or longer-lasting antibody responses compared with RV-A infections.
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Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning.
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Applying causal inference and Bayesian statistics to understanding vaccine safety signals using a simulation studyCommunity perception of vaccine safety influences vaccine uptake. Our objective was to assess current vaccine safety monitoring by examining factors that may influence the availability of post-vaccination survey data, and thereby the specificity and sensitivity of existing signal detection methods.
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Standardization of Epidemiological Surveillance of Group A Streptococcal PharyngitisPharyngitis, more commonly known as sore throat, is caused by viral and/or bacterial infections. Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) is the most common bacterial cause of pharyngitis. Strep A pharyngitis is an acute, self-limiting disease but if undertreated can lead to suppurative complications, nonsuppurative poststreptococcal immune-mediated diseases, and toxigenic presentations.
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Modeling COVID-19 disease processes by remote elicitation of causal Bayesian networks from medical expertsCOVID-19 is a new multi-organ disease causing considerable worldwide morbidity and mortality. While many recognized pathophysiological mechanisms are involved, their exact causal relationships remain opaque. Better understanding is needed for predicting their progression, targeting therapeutic approaches, and improving patient outcomes. While many mathematical causal models describe COVID-19 epidemiology, none have described its pathophysiology.
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Fuzzy model for quantitative assessment of the epidemic risk of African Swine Fever within AustraliaAfrican Swine Fever (ASF) has spread rapidly across different continents since 2007 and caused huge biosecurity threats and economic losses. Establishing an effective risk assessment model is of great importance for ASF prevention, especially for those ASF-free countries such as Australia.
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Standardization of Epidemiological Surveillance of Acute Poststreptococcal GlomerulonephritisAcute poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (APSGN) is an immune complex-induced glomerulonephritis that develops as a sequela of streptococcal infections. This article provides guidelines for the surveillance of APSGN due to group A Streptococcus (Strep A). The primary objectives of APSGN surveillance are to monitor trends in age- and sex-specific incidence, describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with APSGN, document accompanying risk factors, then monitor trends in frequency of complications, illness duration, hospitalization rates, and mortality.
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Effects of zinc and vitamin A supplementation on prognostic markers and treatment outcomes of adults with pulmonary tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysisUndernutrition is a major risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), which is estimated to be responsible for 1.9 million TB cases per year globally. The effectiveness of micronutrient supplementation on TB treatment outcomes and its prognostic markers (sputum conversion, serum zinc, retinol and haemoglobin levels) has been poorly understood.