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Reimagining OpenMalaria and Supporting Novel Tools

This project consists of two linked research programs, working to support malaria control and elimination using OpenMalaria: our in-house, open-source, malaria simulation tool.

Strep A modelling: OpenStrepA

Strep A causes a huge global burden of disease, from sore throats to rheumatic heart disease. Our team is developing a computer simulation model, OpenStrepA, to help researchers tackle this disease.

Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) supporting Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance

In this project, our team provides malaria vaccine impact predictions to inform vaccine investment strategies for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and their partners.

Global Disease Modelling

We help shape how the world responds to infectious diseases: guiding vaccine and treatment development, and advising on public health measures to control and eliminate disease. Our mathematical models capture how diseases spread, how severe infections are, and how childhood exposure shapes health across a lifetime.

Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health.

Intervention effect of targeted workplace closures may be approximated by single-layered networks in an individual-based model of COVID-19 control

Individual-based models of infectious disease dynamics commonly use network structures to represent human interactions. Network structures can vary in complexity, from single-layered with homogeneous mixing to multi-layered with clustering and layer-specific contact weights. Here we assessed policy-relevant consequences of network choice by simulating different network structures within an established individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.

Efficacy thresholds and target populations for antiviral COVID-19 treatments to save lives and costs: a modelling study

In 2023 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was declared endemic, yet hospital admissions have persisted and risen within populations at high and moderate risk of developing severe disease, which include those of older age, and those with co-morbidities. Antiviral treatments, currently only available for high-risk individuals, play an important role in preventing severe disease and hospitalisation within this subpopulation.

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention and the spread of Plasmodium falciparum quintuple-mutant parasites resistant to sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine: a modelling study

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine prevents millions of clinical malaria cases in children younger than 5 years in Africa's Sahel region. However, Plasmodium falciparum parasites partially resistant to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (with quintuple mutations) potentially threaten the protective effectiveness of SMC. We evaluated the spread of quintuple-mutant parasites and the clinical consequences. 

Performance characteristics and potential public health impact of improved pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines targeting childhood burden

New malaria vaccine development builds on groundbreaking recommendations and roll-out of two approved pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEVs); RTS,S/AS01 and R21/Matrix-M. Whilst these vaccines are effective in reducing childhood malaria within yearly routine immunization programs or seasonal vaccination, there is little evidence on how different PEV efficacies, durations of protection, and spacing between doses influence the potential to avert uncomplicated and severe childhood malaria. 

Rethinking a hybrid malaria chemoprevention delivery strategy for children in sub-perennial settings: a modelling study integrating age- and seasonally-targeted delivery

The World Health Organization recommends perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC), generally using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to children at high risk of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Currently, PMC is given up to age two in perennial transmission settings. However, no recommendation exists for perennial settings with seasonal variation in transmission intensity, recently categorized as 'sub-perennial'.