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Prediction of Causative Pathogen of Osteomyelitis Using Bayesian Network Modelling

Investigators: Andrew Martin, Asha Bowen, Charlie McLeod, Chris Blyth, Tom Snelling, Yue Wu

External collaborators: Steven Mascaro (Monash University), Ann Nicholson (Monash University)

Bone infection, caused by a bacterial pathogen, affects more children than adults. Choosing the best antibiotic is challenging due to difficulties in identifying the bacteria causing the infection. Often the pathogen is presumed but never confirmed, or if it is identified as an cause by a bacterial pathogen, the exact pathogen can be difficult to identify. This is because a direct sample of infected bone or joint fluid can only be obtained through invasive procedures, and even then the bacteria can be difficult to grow, and thus identify, using standard methods.

Using what we know about disease epidemiology, physiology, microbiology and information from previous patients, we have developed a modelling tool to address these challenges and predict the pathogen causing the infection at the point-of-care. This tool might greatly help reduce antibiotic misuse and improve patient outcomes.