Western Australia’s Omicron outbreak is far from over, with new modelling showing the number of total infections is only at its half-way point.
New modelling from The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University has predicted a further 350,000 to 550,000 people will be infected before the end of June, under the current eased restrictions.
The majority of people already infected in this outbreak were in the 18-35 year old age group, where 59% of projected infections have already taken place, closely followed by the 35-65 year old age group at 56%.
Our youngest and oldest age groups are expected to account for more infections in the second half of the outbreak. The 0-18 year old age group is only just past its half-way point at 51% of projected infections, and the 65+ age group has had 53%.
Lead researcher Associate Professor Ewan Cameron, from The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin University, said older people were at greater risk of being infected in the later stages of the outbreak.
“We usually see older people infected later in these outbreaks, and of course, people over 65 are most at risk of becoming seriously ill or dying with COVID-19,” he said.
We’ve seen this in other states and around the world. These later infections of older people can cause a spike in deaths towards the end of the outbreak, so it’s really important that people in that age group take extra precautions to protect themselves.
Professor Peter Gething, head of the Geospatial Health and Development team and The Kids Research Institute Australia and Kerry M Stokes AC Chair in Child Health at Curtin University, said the decision to delay the easing of restrictions until after Easter has paid dividends.
“We can see from mobility data that there were fewer large gatherings over the Easter break than we would traditionally see over that period, so the low case numbers can be attributed to the continued restrictions over the holidays, and people in WA doing the right thing,” Professor Gething said.
Keeping mask-wearing in place for longer also played a role, and it is important that people feel comfortable in continuing with voluntary mask wearing, if that’s what they choose.
“There are some settings like football games, where people who are particularly vulnerable should be encouraged to keep wearing a mask. We’re not out of the woods yet and hundreds of thousands more West Australians will be infected with COVID-19 this winter.”
The Kids Research Institute Australia and Curtin team created a new software tool to build a “virtual WA” by using big data to map out the state’s unique physical and social geography, creating the most detailed COVID-19 modelling ever applied to an Australian outbreak.
This allowed them to create a simulation of Western Australia’s 2.7 million residents, factoring in households, communities, schools and workplaces, with locations matched one-to-one against the real world in a way the researchers believe captures real interactions of our daily lives.
The model harnesses “big data” from a range of sources, including the Australian Bureau of Statistics, The Western Australian Land Information Authority (Landgate), WA Department of Health, WA Department of Education, The Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA), and Google to create the simulations.
The team behind the modelling work have pivoted to studying the spread of COVID-19, after establishing world-leading research to map the global spread of Malaria.
The team – recruited from all over the world and now based in Perth – will continue to use the same sophisticated model to develop predictions for WA throughout the pandemic.